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Saturday, February 4, 2023

The Recent History of NFL Trades for the Number Two Overall Pick

Last spring, with the Houston Texans holding the third overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, I asked Texans general manager Nick Caserio, in my very first question of an interview, if he was “open for business” at the third overall pick, meaning would he be actively (and happily) entertaining calls from teams looking to trade for that pick.

“Absolutely!” he exclaimed, gleefully.

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It made sense at the time. The Houston Texans were completely bereft of any young talent, and accumulating more picks in exchange for his lofty third overall pick was logical. Additionally, there were no real franchise quarterbacks available at the top of the 2022 draft. If there were, the Texans likely would have taken one.

Things are different this draft season. The Texans still need a franchise quarterback (badly), and this spring there are two very good ones available in Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. They select second overall in the draft, so they are mathematically guaranteed one of those two, if they choose to stay put and use their pick. I can’t imagine that they trade out of that spot, but stranger things have happened.

Since 2000, the second pick in the draft has only been traded three times, so history tells us the odds are against movement, even if Caserio is still is as giddy to do so as he was in 2022. For historical reference purposes, here are the three trades involving the second overall pick since 2000. I’ll summarize these and then assess whether or not Caserio should do these deals, if he were offered exactly the same in 2023. Here we go:

2017 – The Mitchell Trubisky Trade
CHICAGO received 2nd overall pick
SAN FRANCISCO received 3rd, 67th, and 111th overall picks, and ’18 3rd round pick
This deal was the Bears moving up one spot to make Trubisky the first quarterback selected in a draft that included Patrick Mahomes (10th overall pick) and Deshaun Watson (12th overall pick). If I were Caserio, I’d probably just stay at second overall and take Young or Stroud, but if neither have been taken, I’d happily move back to third overall, pick up extra selections, and take whoever is left over.

2016 – The Carson Wentz Trade
PHILADELPHIA received 2nd overall pick and ’17 5th round pick
CLEVELAND received 8th, 77th, and 100th overall picks, and ’17 1st round and ’18 2nd round picks
It’s tough to say “No” to extra high picks in each of the next two seasons, but I don’t like the idea of moving all the way down to eighth in this draft. I feel like that would drop too far to get one of the premier blue chip players in this draft. I would say “No” to this same deal in 2023.

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2012 – The Robert Griffin III Trade
WASHINGTON received 2nd overall pick
ST. LOUIS received 6th and 39th overall picks, and ’13 1st and ’14 1st round picks
Okay, this would be a really tough one to say “No” to. The fact that BOTH picks the next two drafts are first rounders, from a team that would be building around a young quarterback (likely making them high picks, at least next year), make this trade very enticing. The extra second round pick in this draft would give the Texans picks 6, 12, 33, and 39 — four of the top 39 players. Also, you’d have three first round picks in 2024. I say “YES” to this one!

Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.





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Last spring, with the Houston Texans holding the third overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, I asked Texans general manager Nick Caserio, in my very first question of an interview, if he was “open for business” at the third overall pick, meaning would he be actively (and happily) entertaining calls from teams looking to trade for that pick.

“Absolutely!” he exclaimed, gleefully.

It made sense at the time. The Houston Texans were completely bereft of any young talent, and accumulating more picks in exchange for his lofty third overall pick was logical. Additionally, there were no real franchise quarterbacks available at the top of the 2022 draft. If there were, the Texans likely would have taken one.

Things are different this draft season. The Texans still need a franchise quarterback (badly), and this spring there are two very good ones available in Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. They select second overall in the draft, so they are mathematically guaranteed one of those two, if they choose to stay put and use their pick. I can’t imagine that they trade out of that spot, but stranger things have happened.

Since 2000, the second pick in the draft has only been traded three times, so history tells us the odds are against movement, even if Caserio is still is as giddy to do so as he was in 2022. For historical reference purposes, here are the three trades involving the second overall pick since 2000. I’ll summarize these and then assess whether or not Caserio should do these deals, if he were offered exactly the same in 2023. Here we go:

2017 – The Mitchell Trubisky Trade
CHICAGO received 2nd overall pick
SAN FRANCISCO received 3rd, 67th, and 111th overall picks, and ’18 3rd round pick
This deal was the Bears moving up one spot to make Trubisky the first quarterback selected in a draft that included Patrick Mahomes (10th overall pick) and Deshaun Watson (12th overall pick). If I were Caserio, I’d probably just stay at second overall and take Young or Stroud, but if neither have been taken, I’d happily move back to third overall, pick up extra selections, and take whoever is left over.

2016 – The Carson Wentz Trade
PHILADELPHIA received 2nd overall pick and ’17 5th round pick
CLEVELAND received 8th, 77th, and 100th overall picks, and ’17 1st round and ’18 2nd round picks
It’s tough to say “No” to extra high picks in each of the next two seasons, but I don’t like the idea of moving all the way down to eighth in this draft. I feel like that would drop too far to get one of the premier blue chip players in this draft. I would say “No” to this same deal in 2023.

2012 – The Robert Griffin III Trade
WASHINGTON received 2nd overall pick
ST. LOUIS received 6th and 39th overall picks, and ’13 1st and ’14 1st round picks
Okay, this would be a really tough one to say “No” to. The fact that BOTH picks the next two drafts are first rounders, from a team that would be building around a young quarterback (likely making them high picks, at least next year), make this trade very enticing. The extra second round pick in this draft would give the Texans picks 6, 12, 33, and 39 — four of the top 39 players. Also, you’d have three first round picks in 2024. I say “YES” to this one!

Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.





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