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Sunday, February 5, 2023

Warriors shouldn’t have trouble covering vs. Mavericks, plus other best bets for Tuesday

Good afternoon gamblers, it’s Chris Bengel back in the saddle with you.

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I hope everyone stuffed their stomachs with turkey and their pockets with cash courtesy of winning bets. We’re entering the holiday season, which means that college football bowl season is right around the corner. There’s nothing more glorious than watching random college football games at all hours of the day and night.

Let’s dive into Tuesday’s picks, which are NBA heavy.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

Warriors at Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. | TV: TNT

Latest Odds:

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Golden State Warriors
-2

  • Key Trend: The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows at least 100 points in their previous game
  • The Pick: Warriors -1.5 (-110)

The Warriors, to the surprise of many, got off to an underwhelming start this season. But Golden State has rebounded in a big way of late with five wins over their last six games — including a current three-game winning streak. That’s why I’m confident that the Warriors will cover this small number in this spot.

The Warriors still are averaging 117.8 points-per-game, which is good for third in the NBA behind only the Celtics and Kings. In addition, Golden State is shooting the lights out from three with 38.2 percent clip (third-best in the league). During their recent three-game winning streak, the Warriors have shot 41.3 percent (59-of-143) from beyond the arc with Stephen Curry drilling at least four threes in each of those contests. 

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Additionally, the Mavericks rank No. 24 in terms of defending the three-point shot. The Warriors are obviously never going to be afraid to chuck up shots from the perimeter in bunches, so this definitely bodes well for their chances on Tuesday.


💰 More NBA Picks


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Clippers at Trail Blazers, 10 p.m. | TV: TNT

Latest Odds:

Portland Trail Blazers
-3.5

The Pick: Trail Blazers -3.5 (-110) The Clippers will be missing quite a bit of star power in this contest. With that in mind, I have no problem riding with the Trail Blazers’ side of the spread.

Kawhi Leonard recently returned to the lineup, but has been ruled out of Tuesday’s game due to an ankle injury. Paul George (hamstring) and John Wall (load management) won’t play against the Trail Blazers either. Even with George and Wall in the lineup this season, the Clippers rank dead-last in scoring as they average just 106.4 points-per-game. The Clippers’ saving grace has been their three-point scoring (35.8 percent), which is one of the few reasons that they have a winning record.

Dynamic guard Damian Lillard has been limited to just 11 games this season and remains out of the Portalnd lineup. However, the Trail Blazers have relied on the likes of Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant to shoulder the scoring load in Lillard’s absence. Despite being a tad shorthanded, the Trail Blazers have managed to bounce back following losses (they lost 111-97 to the Nets on Sunday). The Trail Blazers are 11-5 ATS over their last 16 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game.

The Clippers are coming off a 114-100 win over the Pacers on Sunday, but at least had Wall for that contest.

Key Trend: The Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record

Knicks at Pistons, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA.TV
The Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 22.5 Points (-125)
Jalen Brunson has really provided a huge offensive boost to the Knicks’ backcourt. Considering how effectively he’s scoring the basketball, attacking Brunson’s point prop is a solid move.

Over his last four games, Brunson has registered at least 23 points. The 26-year-old star has scored at least 30 points in each of his last three games, including a 34-point performance against the Thunder on Nov. 21. Part of the reason for Brunson’s scoring explosion has been due to his success shooting from the perimeter. He’s connected on multiple threes in three of his last four games while splashing home three shots from deep in each of his last two games.

The Pistons are allowing 116.7 points-per-game this season, which is 25th in the NBA, so it’s not going to be a surprise if Brunson clears this number.

Key Trend: Brunson has scored at least 23 points in each of his last four games





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Good afternoon gamblers, it’s Chris Bengel back in the saddle with you.

I hope everyone stuffed their stomachs with turkey and their pockets with cash courtesy of winning bets. We’re entering the holiday season, which means that college football bowl season is right around the corner. There’s nothing more glorious than watching random college football games at all hours of the day and night.

Let’s dive into Tuesday’s picks, which are NBA heavy.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

Warriors at Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. | TV: TNT

Latest Odds:

Golden State Warriors
-2

  • Key Trend: The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows at least 100 points in their previous game
  • The Pick: Warriors -1.5 (-110)

The Warriors, to the surprise of many, got off to an underwhelming start this season. But Golden State has rebounded in a big way of late with five wins over their last six games — including a current three-game winning streak. That’s why I’m confident that the Warriors will cover this small number in this spot.

The Warriors still are averaging 117.8 points-per-game, which is good for third in the NBA behind only the Celtics and Kings. In addition, Golden State is shooting the lights out from three with 38.2 percent clip (third-best in the league). During their recent three-game winning streak, the Warriors have shot 41.3 percent (59-of-143) from beyond the arc with Stephen Curry drilling at least four threes in each of those contests. 

Additionally, the Mavericks rank No. 24 in terms of defending the three-point shot. The Warriors are obviously never going to be afraid to chuck up shots from the perimeter in bunches, so this definitely bodes well for their chances on Tuesday.


💰 More NBA Picks


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Clippers at Trail Blazers, 10 p.m. | TV: TNT

Latest Odds:

Portland Trail Blazers
-3.5

The Pick: Trail Blazers -3.5 (-110) The Clippers will be missing quite a bit of star power in this contest. With that in mind, I have no problem riding with the Trail Blazers’ side of the spread.

Kawhi Leonard recently returned to the lineup, but has been ruled out of Tuesday’s game due to an ankle injury. Paul George (hamstring) and John Wall (load management) won’t play against the Trail Blazers either. Even with George and Wall in the lineup this season, the Clippers rank dead-last in scoring as they average just 106.4 points-per-game. The Clippers’ saving grace has been their three-point scoring (35.8 percent), which is one of the few reasons that they have a winning record.

Dynamic guard Damian Lillard has been limited to just 11 games this season and remains out of the Portalnd lineup. However, the Trail Blazers have relied on the likes of Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant to shoulder the scoring load in Lillard’s absence. Despite being a tad shorthanded, the Trail Blazers have managed to bounce back following losses (they lost 111-97 to the Nets on Sunday). The Trail Blazers are 11-5 ATS over their last 16 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game.

The Clippers are coming off a 114-100 win over the Pacers on Sunday, but at least had Wall for that contest.

Key Trend: The Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record

Knicks at Pistons, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA.TV
The Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 22.5 Points (-125)
Jalen Brunson has really provided a huge offensive boost to the Knicks’ backcourt. Considering how effectively he’s scoring the basketball, attacking Brunson’s point prop is a solid move.

Over his last four games, Brunson has registered at least 23 points. The 26-year-old star has scored at least 30 points in each of his last three games, including a 34-point performance against the Thunder on Nov. 21. Part of the reason for Brunson’s scoring explosion has been due to his success shooting from the perimeter. He’s connected on multiple threes in three of his last four games while splashing home three shots from deep in each of his last two games.

The Pistons are allowing 116.7 points-per-game this season, which is 25th in the NBA, so it’s not going to be a surprise if Brunson clears this number.

Key Trend: Brunson has scored at least 23 points in each of his last four games





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